NBA Rookie Scale Prospects Ranking: The top 50 prospects (2024)

This is the big finale of the 2019-20 NBA Rookie Scale Prospect Rankings.

The genesis of this project came as I considered that baseball and hockey have tremendous public infrastructures for ranking organizationally-controlled prospects. For instance, the hockey side here atThe Athleticis tremendous with Corey Pronman providing detailed rankingsevery year of each prospect within each team. On the baseball side,Fangraphs literally ranks every prospect known to man. Why couldn’t we do something similar with basketball, I wondered.

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So in that vein, I sought to break down and rank every prospect with rights owned by an NBA team. First, I ranked them within team, and discussed which players have the brightest futures going forward. Then I decided I wanted to do one massive, omnibus, top 50 ranking of the best prospects league-wide. Obviously, that project ended up being more difficult than I thought it would be (and more time consuming given my inability to be anything but overly detailed).

• RELATED:The Rookie Scale Team Rankings and All 30 Team Analysis pieces can be found here.

Unlike the team rankings — which were a mix of industry consensus and my own thought — this ranking is largely my own. I reached out to a few NBA executives to spot-check it, certainly. I also asked a few of the smart folks whose opinions I trust in media what their thoughts were, just as a double check. The result is a ranking of the top 50 prospects on rookie scale deals in the NBA currently. And remember, this comes at the end of having written well over 200,000 words over the course of 32 articles breaking down every single one of these prospects in the NBA in detail.

So that begs the question: what is it I am looking for and why are some guys ranked ahead of other guys? On some level, the easiest part of an exercise like this is simply ranking the top guys. But how do you gauge the lower upside, higher floor prospects versus the high-upside guys who might not even totally be NBA players?

I tried to take each player situation as if it is an expected value equation. In other words, What is a player’s upside versus the likelihood of reaching that upside. Honestly, the question I tried to answer here is, Which players will have the best careers? I did not consider contract value. I certainly considered what they had accomplished thus far, but given that most of these guys have a greater portion of their careers ahead of them than behind them, what I think their trajectory and future performance projects to be is a bit more important.

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So with that being said, here is inaugural Top 50 NBA Rookie Scale Prospects, with text excerpts from my full analysis of them in the original team breakdowns. I’ve grouped the players in tiers, with the goal being to explain in general what I think their upside is and how close I think certain players are to one another.

Tier 1: Franchise players who can be the best players on NBA Title Teams

1. Luka Doncic | 21 years old | Dallas Mavericks

2019-20 stats: 28.7 points, 9.3 rebounds, 8.7 assists, 1.1 steals, 46.1/31.8/75.2

It’s difficult to overstate just how dominant Doncic has been thus far in his career. He was a teenage Euroleague MVP, the first of his kind. He was a Euroleague Finals MVP. He won the Spanish ACB league MVP award as a teenager, too, also the first to do that. Undeniably, Doncic was the most decorated prospect in the history of European hoops. For him to fall to No. 3 in the 2018 draft was absurd. Since then, all Doncic has done is become the best prospect in the NBA. The Slovenian would be a top five player in MVP voting for me this season. There are two reasons. First, from a production standpoint, Doncic is just ridiculous. The 28.7 points, 9.3 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game he’s averaging? Only Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook have done that in a season before. And he’s doing it on a higher true-shooting percentage than either of them ever did. And for reference on the current do-everything star that exists in our basketball ecosystem? LeBron James has never averaged 9.3 rebounds, and has only averaged 8.7 assists in a season three times.

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2. Zion Williamson, F/C | 19 years old | New Orleans Pelicans

2019-20 stats: 19 games, 23.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 58.9/46.2/64.5

When Williamson was in the draft last season, I thought he was pretty clearly the best prospect who had entered the process since Anthony Davis back in 2012. He was genuinely, historically productive in his lone season with the Blue Devils, averaging 22.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 2.1 steals and 1.8 blocks. Unsurprisingly, no one had done that in the last 30 years of college basketball in terms of across-the-board production. But at the end of the day, the thing that matters most is if he can play at the NBA level. And after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus prior to the season opener, Williamson returned in January to prove that he’s going to be an absolute monster. His 23 points, six rebounds and two assists while shooting 58 percent from the field? It’s a small sample of 19 games, but no rookie had ever achieved those thresholds across the board. He wasn’t on pace to post the best rookie season ever — for me, that’s either Lew Alcindor in 1970 or Walt Bellamy in 1961 — but he was on pace to be somewhere in the top 10. And the scary thing is that he was getting even better the further away he got from injury. In his final 11 games prior to the shutdown, he averaged 26.4 points on 59.8 percent from the field.

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3.Jayson Tatum, W | 22 years old | Boston Celtics

2019-20 stats: 23.6 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.9 blocks, 44.8/39.8/80.6

Tatum has quickly become one of the absolute best young players in the NBA. He’s a monster two-way wing who had already established himself as a future All-Star coming into the year, and then made that leap into legitimate stardom by the time the calendar rolled over to 2020. Following a three-game losing streak, the Celtics returned to Boston on Jan. 11 and needed to regroup. At that point it seems like the lightbulb turned on for Tatum and he realized that he needed to be the guy to lead the way on offense. He dropped 41 points that night in a monster 35-point victory against the Pelicans, and from there just looked like a totally different type of player. Over his final 23 games before the shutdown, Tatum averaged 27.9 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.1 assists. He hit 49 percent of his shots from the field, including 45.5 percent of the nearly eight 3-point attempts per game that he was taking. He became one of the absolute best offensive players in the NBA, a creative force who seemed to be morphing into the kind of guy who could carry Boston to multiple playoff series victories.

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Tier 2: Potential Hall of Fame Trajectory

4. Ben Simmons, G/F | 23 years old | Philadelphia 76ers

2019-20 stats: 16.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 8.2 assists, 2.1 steals, 0.6 blocks, 58.5/33.3/62.7

Simmons is, by far, the most interesting player in the NBA to me. From a play style perspective in how he fits with his teammates. From an on-court production perspective. From a narrative perspective, given that every game seems to be a referendum on his play and his future. Everything about Simmons fascinates me. And here’s the thing: I’m still remarkably high on Simmons. … Basically, with Simmons, you have one of the most devastating transition players in the league, one of the best defensive players in the league, and one of the best passers in the league, paired with an athletic frame that is unique from a power and quickness perspective. That’s an incredible starting point for a player who is only 23. … My bet is that Simmons figures out how to shoot at some point and becomes an effective player in the playoffs. I don’t think he’ll ever quite reach the heights Giannis and LeBron have reached, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he got into the mix in MVP voting at some point within the next few years. Despite the obvious flaws, he’s really close to being a superstar player.

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Addendum:I’m still 100 percent in on Simmons. The way he took control of Philadelphia this season in Joel Embiid’s absence was impressive. Just how Tatum took a leap in January, Simmons did so too, even if it went somewhat unnoticed due to the mess that is the roster in Philadelphia taking up more headlines. He averaged 21.2 points, 9.4 rebounds and 7.9 assists while shooting 61.6 percent from the field and continuing to play All-Defense level play on the other end after the calendar turned to 2020. I’m comfortable betting on him long-term to get into the right situation and become an absolute terror.

(Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

5. Trae Young | 21 years old | Atlanta Hawks

2019-20 stats: 29.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, 9.3 assists, 1.1 steals, 43.7/36.1/86.0

Simply put, Young has developed into one of the most creative offensive forces in the NBA, regardless of age. … He averaged 29.6 points and 9.3 assists on a pretty ridiculous 59.5 true-shooting percentage. The players who posted at least that many points per game total on that level of efficiency? It’s a veritable set of Hall of Famers, guys who sprinkle the NBA’s all-time elite. Try these names on for size: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Larry Bird, Stephen Curry, Adrian Dantley, Kevin Durant, George Gervin, James Harden, LeBron James, Michael Jordan, Karl Malone, Bob McAdoo, Shaquille O’Neal, and Kiki Vandeweghe. That’s 14 guys, 13 of whom are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers, plus Vandeweghe, who did it in one of the insanely uptempo Doug Moe seasons in Denver, where the Nuggets posted a pace that was absurdly nine possessions above the league average per game. And the number of players to post that scoring combination while also averaging nine assists? How about just Young this season and Harden in 2017? … To complain about what he’s accomplished at this point would be missing the forest for the trees.

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6. Brandon Ingram, F | 22 years old | New Orleans Pelicans

2019-20 stats: 24.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.0 steals, 46.6/38.7/85.8

Ingram was arguably the breakout star of the 2019-20 season, making the All-Star game and establishing himself as a clear max-level player as he enters restricted free agency. Should we have seen this coming? Honestly, there were signs in his final year with the Lakers. In his final 23 games in the 2018-19 season, Ingram averaged 21 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.7 assists while shooting 54.1 percent from the field and 38.5 percent from 3. Those numbers match up pretty well to the numbers he posted this year. … I’m extremely high on this type of player because it’s just so hard to find league-wide. It’s hard to imagine a trade for a superstar who was leaving anyway working out better for a team than moving one year of Anthony Davis for what will likely be Ingram on a longer term contract. The Pelicans are in good shape going forward with a Zion-Ingram core and should be competitive in the West sooner rather than later.

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7. Ja Morant, G | 20 years old | Memphis Grizzlies

2019-20 stats: 17.6 points, 3.5 rebounds, 6.9 assists, 49.1/36.7/77.0

He’s almost certainly going to win Rookie of the Year, barring a collapse when the league’s season restarts. Given that Williamson missed most of the season, that’s not a stunning result. Morant was the No. 2 player on my board entering the 2019 NBA Draft. … He is one of the better rookie point guards we’ve seen in the last few decades. It’s rare for a rookie point guard to be the maestro of a playoff team, but Morant is well on his way to doing just that. On top of it, he’s one of the most exciting prospects league-wide, and it’s very easy to see how his skillset as a shooter and passer is going to grow with time. Morant is going to be an All-Star point guard for a long-time, and the Grizzlies are building really intelligently around him, with players and a scheme that make a lot of sense.

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8. Pascal Siakam, F | 26 years old | Toronto Raptors

2019-20 stats: 23.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.9 blocks, 45.9/35.9/80.0

Without Kawhi Leonard around this season, Siakam has taken the leap. Really, he took “the leap” (as in, the one from role player to star) heading into last year, and this year he is getting more of a chance to be the focal point of the offense. But he’s also drastically improved as a shooter and ballhandler, which allows him to dominate games more on offense. At this point, it would be wrong to call Siakam anything other than a top 20 player. … Prior to Siakam’s injury, I had him on his way to making the All-NBA team, even at the loaded forward position. Certainly, he’s stuck behind LeBron, Giannis and Kawhi, but a lot of where you place him within the next hierarchy depends on positional definition (is Luka Doncic a guard or a forward? Is Anthony Davis a center or a forward? At some point, the NBA needs to remove positional designations from the All-NBA team, but I digress). He’s certainly in the mix, though, if he keeps dominating as he gets back from his injury. In every regard, Siakam is a stud who gives Toronto a very real chip to sell to free agents in 2021, assuming it keeps its cap space.

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Full Analysis

Addendum:Trying to balance where to rank Siakam is one of the toughest calls on this list due to his age. Is he someone who should be substantially higher, given that he’s already a better player than a few of the guys ahead of him? Or does the fact that he’s (for instance) six years older than Morant, and five years older than Young, give them enough time to close the gap? Personally, I think it does. But if you wanted to put Siakam as high as No. 4, I’d buy that totally, too. Siakam is still on an upward trajectory despite his age, and there might be some further room for growth here, even beyond the borderline All-NBA level he hit prior to injury this year.

9. Donovan Mitchell, G | 23 years old | Utah Jazz

2019-20 stats: 24.2 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.0 steals, 45.3/36.4/85.9

As a second-year player, Mitchell saw his numbers go slightly down, but he added a floater game that was made possible in part because he got better at finishing off of one foot. It allowed him to flourish as a creator. It also helped that he tightened up his handle, but he’s always been pretty shifty with a solid array of crossovers. … Getting your money in on Mitchell probably would have been getting your money in good during the draft, given his high floor and work ethic. Betting on the person tends to be a pretty good draft strategy when that person has a baseline of talent. And that’s where the miss was on Mitchell, more than anything. The Jazz did well to move up to get their guy, and now they’re reaping the rewards.

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Addendum:Mitchell continued to get better. He earned his first All-Star berth this season and should get a max contract extension from the Jazz this summer. He’s the guy for them long-term, even over Rudy Gobert. All of Mitchell, Young and Morant are in the same tier, and I’d get placing them in any order. I’ve gone this way because I think Young’s shot creation and offensive talent is just so unique, and Morant has three years of development to catch up to Mitchell still. But Mitchell is what every team is looking for: a star shot creator who can also take on tough defensive assignments.

Tier 3: Multi-time All-Stars

10. Bam Adebayo, C | 22 years old | Miami Heat

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2019-20 stats: 16.2 points, 10.5 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.3 blocks, 56.7/ — /69.0

Preseason: Adebayo has been one of my favorite development projects to watch in the NBA over the past few years. … In today’s NBA, it’s hard to find centers you can feel comfortable closing games with unless they’re superstars. Typically, bigs just aren’t good enough as perimeter defenders, and create too much of a spacing issue. I don’t think Adebayo gets to the latter star level, but he’s already at the former level of being able to close games. He’s an impact player on defense who has already gotten All-Defense votes, and his offense is multi-faceted enough due to his ballhandling and passing that teams can’t ignore him out on the perimeter. I think this is a breakout season for Adebayo, one in which he becomes a legitimately valuable starting player in the NBA.

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Addendum:It’s funny looking back on what I wrote, when I actually ranked Adebayo behind Tyler Herro in the initial Heat rankings. I basically had Adebayo’s game dead-on. I knew he was on the rise. I knew he was going to morph into a modern center who can close games and provide a ton of value.

But man, I didn’t see the extent of that leap in 2019-20. Adebayo became one of the absolute best centers in the NBA. He is one of the 25 best players in the league, a multi-dimensional nightmare for other teams who dominates on both ends of the floor. On offense, his ability to initiate high in halfcourt settings is tremendous. He’s a terrific passer and has developed into a really strong ballhandler in space. He’s an actual creator from the center position now and Miami regularly uses him to grab and go on the break to start its offense. Even without the jump shot, he’s one of the most versatile offensive big men in the NBA because he’s such a strong decision-maker. It’s just really hard for opposing centers to deal with him away from the rim because of his body control, ballhandling, passing and explosiveness.

Adebayo also took a leap as a defender, going from a “guy who gets All-Defense team votes” to a “legitimate top five defensive player of the year contender.” His reactivity makes him such a playmaker, with the ability to rack up both steals and blocks to get the Heat out into transition. His mobility is going to make him a ridiculously good playoff defender. And at the rim, he’s still not elite, but he’s good enough to where he can be a deterrent. The Heat have the best development staff in the NBA, and Adebayo’s leap is the single biggest player-based jump here.

11. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, G | 21 years old | Oklahoma City Thunder

2019-20 stats with Clippers: 19.3 points, 6.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.1 steals, 47.3/35.1/80.1

Preseason: The centerpiece of the Paul George trade, Gilgeous-Alexander was unquestionably one of the six best rookies in the NBA last season. … This all reads incredibly positive for a guy who averaged only 11 points, three rebounds and three assists. If he’s really that good, wouldn’t he have produced more? Honestly, I think that leap is coming as soon as this year. Gilgeous-Alexander’s game has no hole in it that isn’t fixable with strength and repetition. He’s going to get more confident and stronger. These are things that just tend to happen naturally, especially for talented players. I think with Shai, we’re talking about a multi-time All-Star in the future.

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Addendum:The leap came even sooner than expected. Gilgeous-Alexander is a monster who was deserving of the All-Star consideration he received this year. He got stronger and a bit quicker while maintaining the patience and length extension as a finisher that makes him lethal. They used him as a second-side playmaker most of the time in halfcourt next to Chris Paul, but he also received a lot of opportunities to run the show.

His improved shooting really showed up in both settings. He hit at a 60.0 effective field goal percentage off the catch with all of his makes being 3s, which was well above-average. He also hit at a 48.2 effective field goal percentage off the bounce, with more of those shots being in the midrange around the elbows. His floater game was also terrific, making up for some struggles to finish directly at the basket, in large part due to still-lacking strength. Having said that, he was much more aggressive and drew twice as many fouls this year, really helping augment his efficiency.

Plus, at 6-foot-6 with a 7-foot wingspan, Gilgeous-Alexander has the ability to move up and down the lineup, which is an enormous help on defense, as it allows the Thunder to play a lethal three-point-guard lineup with Paul and Dennis Schroder. That size and versatility of skillset for Gilgeous-Alexander to play both on and off ball allows his team a tremendous marginal roster building value, because it gives them more optionality in who they can go after. Say the team sees a great distressed asset at the point guard spot? That player fits with Shai. What about at the 3 or the 4? They can use their assets that way, knowing he can slide over to the 1. This is an enormous asset for the Thunder going forward.

12. Jaren Jackson Jr., C | 20 years old | Memphis Grizzlies

2019-20 stats: 16.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.6 blocks, 46.8/39.7/74.1

Through two years into his NBA career, he’s on the All-Star trajectory that the Grizzlies hoped for upon selecting him. … Let’s start on offense. His shooting ability and potential is nearly peerless at the center position. Jackson has hit 39.7 percent from 3 this season on over six attempts per game. There have only been four other players in NBA history to do that within their first two seasons. All of them were wings, and all were among the five or so best shooters in the world at one time: Kyle Korver, Voshon Lenard, Duncan Robinson and Klay Thompson. … A lot of the concerns here are to be expected from a 20-year-old starting big man in the NBA. At that age, Jackson is starting from a remarkably high place. I think I’d be surprised if he doesn’t make at least a few All-Star games. It’s rare to find someone this young, who has this many tools, who is this good already. I expect Jackson to be the kind of guy who impacts winning at a high level.

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13. Jaylen Brown, W | 23 years old | Boston Celtics

2019-20 stats: 20.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.1 steals, 49.0/38.1/73.6

I don’t know that Brown has gotten enough respect in the Most Improved Player of the Year discussion. I don’t think he’d be my pick, but he deserves a place in it. The level to which he took a leap this year is staggering and he’s now a very real max player after I thought the extension the Celtics handed him early in the season was a bit questionable. … He came out this season and looked like the big wing initiator that the Celtics hoped they had drafted back in 2016. … As a ballhandler and on-ball threat while driving, Brown was much more poised and polished this year. Back in college and in his early career, Brown used to drive into a crowd and try to finish through contact with power. There wasn’t as much finesse to his game. There is now an awful lot of finesse and skill. He has added little Eurosteps into his repertoire. He’s much better about sticking defenders in jail on his hip, and calmly probing the defense. His handle is just, frankly, better and more explosive in and out of moves.

Tier 4: High-level starters with All-Star upside

16. Jamal Murray, G | 22 years old | Denver Nuggets

2019-20 stats: 18.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.2 steals, 45.5/34.5/89.3

There is a fine line for young scoring guards. … Are you a volume scorer who needs a lot of shots to create your production, or are you efficient enough to simply be a good scorer? CJ McCollum lives right above that line. And when you live right above that line, you’re an immensely valuable player, especially in the playoffs, where shot creation is at a premium. … Murray, on the other hand, is that line right now. He consistently has stretches when he can be the primary scoring option in the backcourt for Denver. He won the Nuggets multiple games in the playoffs last year, including with a 34-point outburst in Game 4 against Portland, and his critical 24 points in Game 7 against the Spurs. He also has moments where he genuinely shoots the Nuggets out of games.

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Addendum: It was more of the same from Murray this year, continuing to flash exceptional bursts with bouts of shooting inconsistency. It’s clear he’s a building block for the Nuggets, and will remain one. He’s still more of a volume scorer rather than a truly efficient one, but he’s showcased enough to where he’s certainly a worthy starting lead guard, a top three offensive option on a 50-win team. His fit with Jokic is absolutely terrific because he’s a lead who can play both on or off ball. At some point he needs to up his efficiency from 3 from the 35 percent mark up to around 38 percent or so consistently to be the true weapon who he has potential to be. But for now, Murray is a good, sub-All-Star level starter with upside.

17. Jonathan Isaac, F | 22 years old | Orlando Magic

2019-20 stats: 12.0 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 2.4 blocks, 46.3/33.0/76.7

Early season: Isaac is one of the most interesting prospects to try to evaluate across the NBA. The strengths, particularly on defense, are such standout skills that it’s hard not to think of him as a likely genuine difference-maker in the NBA at some point. But his weaknesses are real, and his fit on the offensive end has been precarious in the early portion of his NBA career. I’m less enthused on offense right now. The tools are intriguing, but there are too many holes. Much like the rest of Isaac’s game, a lot of them come back to a lack of strength. He’s not a great screen-setter, which means you can’t really use him as a hard-roller to rim run and use his athletic tools there. His jump shot is getting better, but it is still well below average heading into the year. He took 246 catch-and-shoot jumpers last season and made them at a 49.2 effective field percentage, according to Synergy. Among the 71 players in the league to take at least 200 such attempts last year, Isaac’s efficiency on them was 65th-best. … The upside here remains absolutely tremendous if it all comes together. His defense is already a legitimate plus and has potential to be among the best in the league.

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Addendum: What Isaac did this year on defense was just totally absurd. If it wasn’t for the truncated nature of his season due to his right knee injury, we’d be talking about him and the Defensive Player of the Year award. There might not be a more aggressive, difference-making help defender in the NBA right now. The only four other guys in his class are Anthony Davis, Draymond Green, Ben Simmons and Giannis Antetokounmpo. He doesn’t get discussed as such, but Isaac entered their realm defensively this season.

The counting stats of 1.6 steals and 2.4 blocks obviously hold up to scrutiny, as the blocks would have been second in the NBA and the steals would be tied for 11th if he played enough games to qualify. Only 12 players this season had at least 50 blocks and 50 steals. All 11 of the other guys to do so did it in at least 55 games; Isaac did it in 32. He led the NBA in combined steals and blocks per game. That’s the best part of the case, but it’s not the only one. He’s also stronger and better as an on-ball defender. He’s terrific in rotation and rarely misses where he needs to be. I expect he will make the All-Defense team next season.

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Isaac was a bit better on offense this season, but not wildly so. He’s still a questionable shooter. He got better at attacking closeouts, and the Magic used him a bit more often in ball-screens as a roller and as a cutter. But again: Isaac needs to keep repping out consistency as a jump shooter. He’s not good enough as a passer to play a Draymond-like role. He’s going to be a spot-up guy who attacks and cuts, a transition guy who fills driving lanes, and a roller toward the rim who can occasionally handle it. The upside still exists for him to get there while averaging 16 or so points per game on reasonable efficiency.

Regardless, Isaac is an exceptionally difficult player type to find, while also being a flawed player who is difficult to rank. If his offense comes together, he’s in a class above this ranking and in the tier ahead of him when it comes to how he affects winning basketball. If the offense never improves beyond this point, he’s probably in the tier below this one. I think I’m good betting on him to figure some of it out, but I totally get it if you think he shouldn’t be this high based on how far away his offense is.

18. Domantas Sabonis, C | 23 years old | Indiana Pacers

2018-19 stats: 14.1 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 59.0/52.9/71.5

Preseason: Sabonis was a breakout offensive player last season, utilizing his elite-level feel for the game to become one of the more efficient, useful offensive centers in the NBA on a per-minute basis. On that end of the floor, he looks like a potential top 10 player at his position in large part due to how he can tear a defense apart both inside and out. Honestly, there are few things as fun in the NBA as watching Sabonis’ synergy with a guard working with him in dribble-handoffs and screen actions. Few centers in the NBA possess the versatility Sabonis does in these situations. He can initiate actions at the top of the key off the dribble, then push to either side of the floor to get into handoff action. His screening is elite and his ability to make plays via the pass and his own scoring make him stand out as a dominant force in these situations.

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Addendum:Sabonis was seemingly one of the breakout stars of the 2019-20 season, making the All-Star game and turning into a legitimate starter for a good Pacers’ team. The funny thing, though? I’m not sure he actually got a crazy amount better on offense. Simply put, he just got way more opportunity and ran with it in the same way he’s been running since he got to Indiana. He actually averaged fewer points per minute, corralled fewer rebounds and was less efficient. Part of the decreased efficiency came from being higher on scouting reports and playing more consistently against starter quality competition, so he certainly didn’t get worse. But this “breakout” was a product of just getting more time and better chances.

That’s not to say that Sabonis isn’t super useful; he is. We’ve known that he’s an incredible passer and a guy who is among the best pick-and-roll big men in the NBA. He makes guards better through his sheer presence. And he did improve on defense. Opponents only shot 59.4 percent at the basket against him this season. That’s a below-average number, but it’s not the disaster level it was last season. And given that he plays next to Myles Turner, he doesn’t have to be some elite rim protector. In general though, bigs who could step out and shoot roasted him a bit. When matched up with Kevin Love, Serge Ibaka, Brook Lopez, and Jaren Jackson Jr. (four of his six most common matchups last season), those players shot an absurd 39 of 67 from the field and hit 10 3s in about 50 minutes of matchup time. Consistently, teams just absolutely attacked him when they had bigs who could pop and space.

Sabonis’ offense is strong enough to where he’s worthy of a top 20 spot on this list. But I worry a bit that his upside might be muted by lacking defensive aptitude at an important defensive position. I totally get that having someone like Jonathan Isaac ahead of an All-Star in Sabonis will raise eyebrows, but I think I’d rather bet on Isaac figuring things out on offense than Sabonis figuring it out on defense.

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19. Caris LeVert, W | 25 years old | Brooklyn Nets

2019-20 stats: 17.7 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.1 steals, 41.4/38.1/72.0

Early season: LeVert is a fascinating — and incredibly difficult — evaluation, in large part due to his propensity to be hurt. (He’s had) five fairly significant surgeries in the last five-and-a-half years, which is not a great sign when trying to project his health going forward. Is he going to be one of these guys who misses time regularly because he can’t stay healthy? That’s a legitimate factor when trying to assess where he is in the hierarchy of young NBA players. It’s also a huge bummer because when LeVert is on the court, he’s an interesting player who could be on the verge of something special. Prior to his dislocated foot last year, LeVert was averaging 18.4 points, 3.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists. Then in his last eight games of the regular season, he averaged 16 points while posting a 48.9/45.2/64.9 line. He saved his best for the playoffs, where he averaged 21 points, 4.6 rebounds and three assists while converting at a 61.9 true-shooting percentage. LeVert has the kind of game that figures to translate well to the highest levels of competition the NBA has to offer.

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Addendum:LeVert had a strong year again, basically backing up what he did as a third-year player prior to his injury. If anything, he actually got better this year. He was coming on strong as the season ended. From Feb. 3 onward, LeVert averaged 24.1 points, 4.8 rebounds and 5.1 assists. Even more than Spencer Dinwiddie, LeVert was becoming the leader in the absence of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. He punctuated it with a 51-point onslaught in Boston to lead Brooklyn to a pretty big win, then followed it up in the last game before the break with 22 points, seven rebounds and four assists against the Lakers in a win.

I’m still going to bet that LeVert is one of those guys who is an awesome wing creator in the playoffs. When games tighten up, you want guys who can just get by their man constantly. LeVert has that ability. He’s going to scare either Milwaukee or Toronto in the playoffs this year. I pushed him down from 16 to 19 because of the injury history, but I think really highly of him. There are fewer players on this list I’m more looking forward to watching in 2020-21 than LeVert, too, as his fit with Durant and Irving will be one of the key aspects of whether the Nets’ experiment works.

20. John Collins, F | 22 years old | Atlanta Hawks

2019-20 stats: 21.6 points, 10.1 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.6 blocks, 58.3/40.1/80.0

Similarly to Young, Collins is something of a controversial building block due to his incredible offensive production and very real defensive question marks. Let’s start on that offense, though, because I’m not sure enough people have recognized just how intriguing Collins is on that end. There is a lot of Amar’e Stoudemire here to Young’s Steve Nash impression. Collins is 22 and coming off of a season in which he averaged 21.6 points and 10.1 rebounds on an obscene 65.9 true-shooting percentage. His productivity has been special for his age. The list of players to have done what Collins did this year isn’t exactly long. It’s Collins and Charles Barkley. Heck, even reduce that down to 21 points and 10 rebounds on a 60 true-shooting percentage and you get Barkley and Collins with Kareem, Shaq, Karl-Anthony Towns, Moses Malone, Anthony Davis, Giannis, Dwight Howard, David Robinson, Karl Malone, Artis Gilmore and Wilt Chamberlain. That’s pretty outrageous for someone this young.

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Tier 5: High-upside prospects, but there are flaws here

21. Lonzo Ball, G | 22 years old | New Orleans Pelicans

2019-20 stats: 12.4 points, 6.2 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 1.4 steals, 41.2/38.3/56.7

I’m still in on Ball as a really good, starting quality NBA player due to all of the little things he does. Having said that, I do see him more as a “role player all-star” than an actual star long-term. Why? I’m just not sure there is enough self-creation in his game to really be counted upon to carry an offense. He does a lot of things exceptionally well, though, in large part because he’s a basketball genius with exceptionally high feel for the game. … A reasonable outcome at this stage for Ball would be becoming the kind of guy that winning teams love to have as the third- or- fourth-best player on his team. Maybe he could be more than that for a bad team in his prime, but I don’t think he’s going to be on one of those teams anytime soon. For the Pelicans, he slots in nicely as the ideal elite-level role player to build around going forward with Williamson, Ingram, and Holiday. Everything he does works to make these guys better.

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22. Collin Sexton, G | 21 years old | Cleveland Cavaliers

2019-20 stats: 20.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 47.2/38.0/84.6

Preseason: Unquestionably, Sexton is polarizing, not just with fans, but also for NBA executives around the league. I’m generally not as down on him as many people around basketball seem to be. From media to reportedly even his own teammates earlier this year, Sexton took an awful lot of criticism. I’m not going to lie and say that a good portion of it wasn’t justified. There are legit flaws here. One is that he was among the worst defensive players in the NBA last season. … (But) Sexton showed legitimate growth in his game the second half of the season. From February onward (the last 30 games of Sexton’s season), the rookie point guard averaged 20.3 points on a 56.8 true-shooting percentage and posted 3.2 assists versus 2.3 turnovers per night. End of season nonsense or not, that’s a great close for a 20-year-old playing his first season.

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Addendum:Sexton basically picked up where that lat-season burst in his rookie season left off. He’s one of the best young scorers in the NBA. He can get a bucket at just about any time. He does so at relatively high volume, and on reasonable efficiency. Only 37 players in league history have ever averaged 20 points per game on at least a 56 true-shooting percentage within their first two seasons. Of those 37 players, only one did not go on to become an All-Star (Charles Smith). Look: part of that is because past generations undeniably overvalued points per game as a metric. But for Sexton to be a part of a real category where 97 percent of the players go on to become All-Stars, that says something, right?

So why isn’t Sexton seen as more of a potential rising star? Well, the rest of his game does just leave an incredible amount to be desired. For a guy the size of a lead guard, he’s a really poor passer who+ doesn’t really see the floor well for his teammates. His defense has not improved. Generally, there are still too many concerns about how he’s going to affect winning to have him higher. But he’s also too polished as a scorer at too young of an age for me to have him much lower, especially given the intense value that shot creators have in today’s NBA.

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23. Buddy Hield, W | 27 years old | Sacramento Kings

2019-20 stats: 19.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 42.9/39.5/85.5

We should feel pretty good about what Buddy is at this stage, even after a roller coaster season. He signed an extension for four years, $94 million that could jump up to $106 million if he reaches certain performance-based bonuses. He earned that contract after a monster 2018-19 season that saw him emerge as one of the absolute best shooters in the NBA, averaging 20.7 points on an absurd 45.8/42.7/88.6 shooting line. There aren’t a ton of guys who have matched a season like that in league history. The list is Stephen Curry, Ray Allen, Larry Bird, Peja Stojakovic and Hield. Five guys in league history. That’s it. That’s pretty good company! This year’s full-season numbers don’t figure to be particularly different than that, either. Just slight decreases across the board. Only 39 players have ever even matched 19 points per game while shooting that line across the board, which I think goes to show how special Hield’s shooting ability is. Even in what is ostensibly a weird season, he still is just an utterly elite shooter in the league’s history. And let’s not mistake it: this season has been weird for Hield.

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24. Marvin Bagley, F/C | 21 years old | Sacramento Kings

2019-20 stats: 13 games, 14.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 46.7/18.2/80.6

I don’t think it’s unfair to call this a lost season for Bagley given that he suffered two injuries that held him out for a substantial period. … He wasn’t particularly awesome when he was out there this season. It’s hard to say how much of his relative inefficiency and issues had to do with the injuries, and how much of it should be ascribed to him struggling to translate to the NBA level. In general, I’m in on Bagley long-term. I tend to bet on elite-level athletes, and Bagley is one of those in terms of quickness and and explosiveness. He’s been remarkably productive at every level he’s played. He averaged 21 points and 11 rebounds at Duke on his way to a first team All-American berth. In high school, he was a top five recruit because of the way that he got the most out of that athleticism due to his high-level motor. Last year, in his rookie season, he averaged 21 points and 11 rebounds per 36 minutes on above-average scoring efficiency. Basically, I think as long as Bagley is healthy, he’s going to score and rebound. … The ultimate question, though, is how much his game impacts winning.

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25. Devonte Graham, G | 25 years old | Charlotte Hornets

2019-20 stats: 18.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 38.2/37.3/82.0

Preseason: I’m not sure Graham is ever going to be enough of a playmaker with ball in hand to be a starter. The ability to buzz in and out of the paint and create shots for everyone on the floor just isn’t quite there. But I do think he has a chance to be one of the steadiest backup lead guards in the NBA if the shooting figures itself out and goes back to collegiate levels. It’s not easy to find guys with elite-level basketball IQ who just so rarely make errors with the ball while also distributing it at a high level. There are things to be hammered out, but this looks like a solid single for the Hornets in the second round.

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Addendum:So, I don’t even know that the evaluation here is a miss. Graham still struggles to get in and out of the paint and break down defenders at a high level. He still struggles to score inside the arc efficiently. The thing that Graham did to make himself into a legitimate starting point guard was become one of the best high-volume 3-point shooters in the NBA. The former Kansas lead guard scored 414 points off of pull-ups in the halfcourt, the sixth-most points of any player in the NBA, behind Damian Lillard, Donovan Mitchell, Chris Paul, Trae Young and Bradley Beal. And even with that volume, Graham, at the shutdown, was 13th out of the 72 NBA players to take at least 150 halfcourt pull-up shots this season with a 51.0 effective field goal percentage.

But Graham also combines that with elite-level decision-making and way-above-average passing. He might struggle to really break down defenders, but he’s always going to put the ball right where it needs to be. I don’t know that he’s necessarily ever going to be a top 10 point guard in the league without that athletic pop or that ability to finish at the rim. Particularly, Graham is the worst finisher at the rim in the NBA this season. At the shutdown, he was 182nd out of 182 players in halfcourt scoring at the rim among players that took at least 100 such shots there this season. He also doesn’t really supplement it with any floater game to speak of. That’s where the growth has to come from. However, he’s probably just the level below being a league-average starting point guard already, which is saying something and is valuable going forward.

26. R.J. Barrett, W | 19 years old | New York Knicks

2019-20 stats: 14.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 40.2/32.0/61.4

Tier 6: Starting caliber players and “what happened with the 2019 Rookie Class?”

36. Kevin Huerter, W | 21 years old | Atlanta Hawks

2019-20 stats: 12.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 41.3/38.0/82.8

It’s difficult to evaluate Huerter’s second season. He had an early season knee injury that held him out of training camp, then a shoulder injury that held him out for the start of the year, and then he dealt with various hip and groin injuries that gave him discomfort as he tried to play through them. It’s probably not unfair to sort of throw this season away from a developmental standpoint. … Above all, he remains a monster shooter off the catch. Among the 162 players league wide to take at least 100 catch-and-shoot shots, Huerter was 14th in terms of efficiency with a 64.3 effective field goal percentage, and again, that came in a year where he navigated a shoulder injury that held him to 32.4 percent from 3 in December as he played his way back into shape. Huerter is going to develop into one of the league’s elite level shooters. Like the kind of shooter who has a chance to win a 3-point contest someday.

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37. Derrick White, G | 25 years old | San Antonio Spurs

2019-20 stats: 10.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 45.9/35.6/85.7

The biggest key to White’s success is the way he quickly diagnoses things that happen around him. His ability to immediately make the right, attack-oriented decision is critical, and it’s why he’s an efficient scorer and a positive offensive player, despite having only played about 2,000 NBA minutes thus far. … White’s high-IQ brand translates well to the defensive side of the floor, where he was a legitimate difference-maker in his second year and had an argument to make the All-Defense team. Consistently, he took on the toughest assignments on the perimeter. He’ll occasionally get powered through by stronger players due to his skinny frame, but he does a great job of using his size and length to contest and fight around screens. His hands are lightning quick and his focus is high. If you lose where you are for even a second while he’s around, he’s going to rip it away. On the weak-side, White is good at rotating and scrambling to pick up for his teammates.

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Addendum:I’m not one to question Gregg Popovich, but the usage of White this year was strange. He played only 102 minutes out of his 1,469 minutes played this season with Murray. In Orlando for the restart, I’d love to see the Spurs focus on playing them together. Because ultimately, the team needs to make a decision within the next year on extending White, and a big part of that is learning if he and Murray — who has already been extended — can play together.

White remains efficient and smart. He had his best year on offense, posting his best true-shooting percentage (outside of his abbreviated rookie season) and lowest turnover rate. Mix that with his defense and I think he’s clearly a starting guard in the league. He’s also about to turn 26 and is probably pretty close to maxed out. But that’s fine. White can be a good, useful player on a lot of winning teams due to how he affects both sides of the floor.

38. Dillon Brooks, W | 24 years old | Memphis Grizzlies

2019-20 stats: 15.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 40.2/36.9/80.9

Brooks is almost like the bridge from the grit-and-grind era to the current uptempo era of Memphis basketball. He brings the tenacity and edge they need every night. The confidence teams need sometimes to push through the tough stretches of a season. That knowing feeling that he’s going to make every shot he takes, even if he’s missed eight in a row. In that vein, he’s one of the ticking hearts of the team. … Brooks is comfortable taking on whatever tough assignments the team puts in front of him on the wing or in the backcourt. He’s not an elite defender, but he gets the job done in making life marginally harder for opposing wings and guards through sheer effort. … Offensively, Brooks is a shot-maker who is fearless. If he’s open for even a split second, the shot is going up. If he gets a driving lane, he’s getting downhill in a hurry and trying to finish at the rim. He’s not particularly efficient, and I worry that sometimes he might think he’s a bit better than he is in a negative way, but this team also needs a wing who can consistently create shots like he can.

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39. De’Andre Hunter, W/F | 22 years old | Atlanta Hawks

2019-20 stats: 12.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 41.0/35.5/76.4

Hunter’s rookie season was weird, and yet his value was likely as expected. The weirdness came from his strengths entering the draft not totally bearing themselves out. However, his potential flaws were figured out in a real, tangible way that inspires some confidence long-term. Overall, Hunter established himself as a solid, steady rotational player, having played more minutes this season than any other rookie in the league. … While I think the defense was slightly worse than I expected, his offense was better. Hunter hit 35.5 percent from 3 on nearly five attempts per game, which is a great starting point for him as a rookie on such high volume. In the last decade, only 10 other rookies have made that percentage on at least 300 attempted 3s, and the only really questionable long-term shooter among the players on that list is Kyle Kuzma. There is a real track record for guys who experience this type of success early on.

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40. Jarrett Allen, C | 22 years old | Brooklyn Nets

2019-20 stats: 10.6 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.3 blocks, 64.6/–/62.0

Midseason: So far in his career, Allen has certainly exceeded that draft slot. However, that desire to find a level of positive consistency from him still exists for evaluators, even as he’s in the NBA and has developed into a starting-caliber big man. Sometimes he’ll look like a future All-Star … in other games, he’ll really struggle throughout to make an impact beyond just being big and long. … So which one is the real Allen? Based off of talent, he should be a top 10 center in the league at some point. He’s only 21, but we’re now in year three of flashes versus sustained excellence. … Allen is a starting center, and that’s a win for Brooklyn. It makes him an asset. It’s on Allen now to make it a home run and become a top-half-of-the-league starter at his position — an outcome that is legitimately possible.

Addendum:This was a very strange season for Allen following the signing of DeAndre Jordan along with Durant and Irving. Mostly, Allen was the starter, but he played fairly equal minutes to Jordan. A lot of the time, the flashes and inconsistency noted above reared their ugly head. Then in the final days prior to the suspension of the season (with Jacque Vaughn taking over as head coach), Jordan entered the starting lineup, relegating Allen to the bench. The entire situation is bizarre, and The Athletic’s Shams Charania (as well as ESPN) has reported that there was some friction among the older players in the locker room in regard to Jordan’s role on the team.

The situation is complicated by the fact that Allen was clearly better for a majority of this season, even though Jordan did start to play better in the last 10 or so games before the shutdown. I wouldn’t be totally stunned to see Allen moved in the offseason as the Nets look to build around their stars and optimize their situation to chase for a title. His situation is unsettled and I’m fascinated to see where it goes because his upside is real if something like this lights a fire under him.

41. Zach Collins, C | 22 years old | Portland Trail Blazers

2018-19 stats: 17.6 minutes per game, 6.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, 0.9 assists, 0.9 blocks, 47.3/33.1/74.6

Preseason: Collins struggled with the power of the NBA game as a rookie center. But as a sophom*ore, he bulked up and clearly looked more willing to play physically inside. He’s never been one to shy away from contact — in fact, Collins actually wants to be the guy to initiate contact and play the tough guy role — but it was hard for him to do so on both ends until last year. … Collins is right on his way to being a useful, modern, starting center. He protects the rim, shoots 3s, can move his feet on the perimeter defensively and seems like the kind of teammate you want to have around because he sticks up for his guys. There aren’t a ton of centers across the NBA who one would feel might be capable of helping a team close games in the playoffs. Collins is one of the few who has a shot to reach that level.

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Addendum:Collins played only three games this year after injuring his shoulder, but should be ready to go for the restart here in a month. He’s one of the guys I’m most looking forward to getting a chance to see as the league gets back going.

42. PJ Washington, F | 21 years old | Charlotte Hornets

2019-20: 12.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 45.5/37.4/64.7

Preseason: There were a lot of polarizing players in this year’s draft class, and Washington was certainly one of them. I ended up sliding him in at No. 20 on my board. I see him as being an interesting role player if you believe in the jump shot, but also someone who doesn’t have a particularly high ceiling as a creative offensive player. … He plays a professional game. He doesn’t make bad decisions, and he doesn’t hang onto the basketball when he doesn’t have to. At around 6-foot-8 with a 7-foot-3 wingspan, he has great size for the 4 spot. Offensively, Washington is a good finisher inside who isn’t bothered by contact — he often seeks it out and uses his frame well to carve out position — and who is good at finding open areas in the defense.

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Addendum:This was a really strong rookie season for Washington. At the very least, he should make second-team All-Rookie. He hit a ton of shots early in the season. In his first 32 games, he hit 42 percent from 3. But then in his final 26 games, he hit 33 percent from 3. Where does he settle?

The rest of his game really shown up well, too. He’s never going to be an elite passer, but he made plays for his teammates at a strong rate for what his role was. He reads the floor well. Then on defense, he was super switchable and active, using his 7-foot-3 wingspan to post the fourth-most deflections among rookies per game. I’m still a bit skeptical on the upside, and I don’t know that Washington will ever be much of a creator. But the 3-and-D skillset he showed at the 4 this year was really valuable for Charlotte. As long as the shooting holds up long-term, he’s going to be effective.

43. Tyler Herro, G | 20 years old | Miami Heat

2019-20 stats: 12.9 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.1 steals, 41.4/39.1/83.5

Preseason: Typically, I’m not a big believer in preseason performances. But here’s the thing: when a player stands out so drastically as being ready for the bright lights as Herro has, I take notice. He has put everyone on notice this preseason … his release is now lightning quick. He doesn’t need to dip the ball after catching. He just gets it into his shooting pocket and hoists. Second, he is definitely a bit of a dribbler. He preferred getting to his pull-up game in the preseason more than just catching-and-firing. For a Miami team that could use a bit more shot creation, that’s a good thing. He’s already proven that he’s going to be able to attack closeouts due to his ballhandling and creativity. … Overall, I’ve become a pretty big believer in Herro turning into a legit NBA starter — and maybe a very high-level one at some point in his career.

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Addendum: Yeah, what we saw from Herro at Summer League and in preseason was basically what we saw from him for the Heat in the regular season (until an ankle injury in early February halted his progress). He is already a good offensive rotation player and he hit 3-pointers at an exceedingly high clip. He should be a starting two-guard as long as he keeps improving his ability to attack closeouts and figures out where to be positionally on defense.

(Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images)

44. Duncan Robinson, W | 26 years old | Miami Heat

2019-20 stats: 15 games with Heat; G League: 21.4 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 51.4/48.3/80.3

Preseason: I’ll just be completely honest: I didn’t see this one coming at all. Robinson has always been a great shooter, even going back to his days at Williams College before getting to Michigan. But I didn’t think he did nearly enough else to stick around the league. This was a guy who started his career at the Division III level, never won All-Big Ten honors and didn’t even average double figures in his last two years for the Wolverines. … There is a real chance Robinson is one of the 10 or so best shooters on planet Earth. Last season, 138 players in the G League took at least 60 jumpers directly off the catch. Robinson made them at an absurd 74.4 effective field goal percentage clip, a number that placed him first by a whopping four percentage points. But it wasn’t just totally a small sample size. Robinson took the 10th-most catch-and-shoot jumpers in the league last year. None of the other players in the top 30 of catch-and-shoot attempts shot even at a 66 effective field goal percentage. Basically, Robinson was the best shooter in the G League last year, and it wasn’t even debatable.

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Addendum:I think I undersold it when I said Robinson might be one of the 10 best shooters on planet Earth. Robinson has been the best shooter in the NBA this season and has turned into a real starter for the Miami Heat. Only one other player in league history has made at least 44 percent of his 3-point attempts on over eight attempts per game: Stephen Curry. No player scored more points off of catch-and-shoot jumpers in the halfcourt. In fact, no one was even close. Robinson had 578 points off of such shots when the league was suspended; the next closest player was Davis Bertans at 369. Robinson legitimately scored 200 more points on jumpers off the catch than anyone in the NBA this season. And on top of the volume, he had the best efficiency on such shots of any player in the top 20 of points scored in such situations.

Robinson has been a monster this year. He doesn’t particularly excel at anything else, and he’s already 26, so the upside is limited. But he’s a terrific weapon for an offense purely because he can put up shots at a prodigious and efficient clip.

45. Luke Kennard, W | 23 years old | Detroit Pistons

2019-20 stats: 15.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 44.2/39.9/89.3

Preseason: At 6-foot-5, Kennard has continued his hot shooting ways, knocking down 40.3 percent of his nearly 500 3-point attempts over his first two years. He also used his second year to improve a bit more as a creator with ball-in-hand. He’s always had the ability to use ball-screens and attack closeouts because he plays at a strong pace, changes speeds well, and can handle in either direction or with either hand. … I don’t think we’ve seen anything from him so far that says Kennard will get to an average level on defense. The key for him will be getting to the point where he’s not a liability. But even having said that, I think Kennard’s going to be a useful piece for a long while. On the offensive end, I think he probably ends up living up to his late lottery billing and develops into a starter.

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Addendum:Kennard took the next step forward in his game, acting as a terrific secondary playmaker for the Pistons this year. He’s clearly a starting quality offensive player. He can play in ball-screens at a high level, his shooting is nearly elite, and he’s a really smart playmaker for others. Two real concerns, though, push him down the list. First, he’s still not very good on defense. He might end up being a sixth-man because of it. Second, the injury concerns continue to come up. He had tendinitis in both knees this season, which forced him to miss the rest of the year from around Christmas onward. His offense is awesome. It’s going to result in him getting an eight-figure-per-season deal either this summer or next. But it’s also notable that the Pistons entertained trading him to Phoenix at the trade deadline. Very few players on this list can say that. The injury worries push him down a bit further.

46. Miles Bridges, W | 22 years old | Charlotte Hornets

2019-20 stats: 13.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 42.4/33.0/80.9

Preseason: Bridges plays a high IQ game. He was a professional from Day 1 out there for Charlotte. He knows what he’s good at, knows what smart shots are for him, and he sticks to it. He’s a strong finisher at the rim, where his power and explosiveness allowed him to post an extremely high percentage in shots at the rim. Last season, Bridges’ 64.7 percent mark at the basket in halfcourt settings placed him within the top 10 of all non-big players in the NBA to take at least 100 such shots. … There is high-level upside for Bridges on (defense) if the tools all come together. He’s a smart player, a terrific athlete and has the strength to really disrupt what the opposition wants to do. This year will be interesting to watch on that end because he should continue to show some real growth. … Regardless of where he lines up, Bridges should begin the season with the starters and I suspect he’ll take on a bit more of an important role. Long-term, I don’t really see him as an All-Star, but I do think he’ll be a positive starting-caliber player for a while.

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Addendum:When I started this thing, I thought Bridges would rank a bit higher. But I was worried enough about the dip in efficiency inside the arc this season to not go past just slotting him in the top 50. He still hasn’t quite knocked down enough shots from distance, and he’s been kind of a mess when he tries to make plays happen with ball in hand when he’s trying to make plays.

In large part, that has to do with two things. First, he’s been a dreadful finisher at the rim when he’s the one creating them — as opposed to getting assisted shots at the rim — both in transition and in the halfcourt. He created more of his shots at the rim this season, and the results were disastrous. He hit just 47.8 percent of his halfcourt attempts there, 164th out of 182 players to take at least 100 shots at the basket.

Second, he’s really not a great passer despite flashing some skills at Michigan State that made you believe that was in his wheelhouse. Basically, I thought he took a step back this season, even in terms of the feel for the game positives that I mentioned as positives in the preseason. I like his activity levels on defense, and if the shooting comes around, he has a chance to really push himself higher up an exercise like this. But he got passed up by both Graham and Washington this year.

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47. Malik Beasley, G | 23 years old | Minnesota Timberwolves

2019-20 stats: 11.2 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 42.5/38.8/81.8

Beasley mostly came off the bench last season and averaged 11.3 points in 23 minutes per night. But in the 18 games he started, he scored 15.9 points per game on a ridiculous 55.9/50.0/93.8 shooting line. Indeed, over his three years as a pro, Beasley has basically become one of the better shooters in the NBA. He takes a majority of his shots with his feet set in spot-up scenarios, where he’s exceptional. … Beasley reportedly rejected something in the vicinity of a three-year, $30 million extension from the Nuggets. I think that’s probably the right call. That offer will almost certainly be there from other teams this summer, even as many are cap-strapped. Still, him turning that deal down does create some uncertainty. He’s already fallen out of the rotation once this year for a couple of games in mid-November, largely just because the Nuggets are very deep.

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Addendum:Indeed, the Nuggets decided to move on from Beasley at the trade deadline, picking up a first-round pick for their talented 2-guard. In his 14 games in Minnesota, he really flashed impressive skills that forced his way onto this list, even with the up-and-down career in Denver. In those 14 games, Beasley averaged 20.7 points on 47.2 percent from the field and 42.6 percent from 3. He set himself up for a big payday this summer, when he’s a restricted free agent. It wouldn’t stun me to see him get a bigger deal than expected, even in what is expected to be a muted marketplace. At 23, he’s one of the higher upside guys on which a team could bet.

48. Jarrett Culver, W | 21 years old | Minnesota Timberwolves

2019-20 stats: 9.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 0.9 steals, 40.4/29.9/46.2

Preseason: Indeed, I think that’s what makes Culver such a terrific prospect, one that I had at No. 5 on my overall draft board. He’s a guy who can make things happen, but also one who will be productive without disrupting everything a team is trying to do. There’s a lot of Khris Middleton to this profile of player. Ultimately though, Middleton became one of the 30 or so best players in the NBA by becoming an absolutely lethal jump shooter. That’s the road Culver has to take to reach that ceiling, as well. If he becomes a consistent 38 to 40 percent 3-point shooter, he’ll be a borderline All-Star. If he becomes more of a 35 to 37 percent 3-point shooter who can’t use the threat of his jumper quite as well to get defenders off-balance, he probably settles in more as a league-average starter. Anything less than that and defenders at this level are likely able to cut off what he’s trying to do offensively and make him not nearly as effective.

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Addendum:I should have added “if Culver is a sub-30 percent shooter, he’ll probably be bad.” Culver really just was a mess as an offensive player this year. His shooting held back everything. It seemed like he just completely lost confidence in his mechanics and things spiraled from there. The good news is that he’s a great worker and I would venture he’ll spend the nearly nine months he’ll have off this year working to get the jumper back. Remember: Culver has really gone through an awful lot of mechanical adjustments in his career. In his first year at Texas Tech, he was a left-eye dominant shooter who largely attacked off the catch. That summer, he moved his load point more toward the middle of his body, and became a much stronger pull-up shooter. He has shown the capacity for positive change as a shooter before. … He was good on defense this season for a rookie. Despite playing some occasional point guard, he didn’t make categorical errors with ball in hand while adjusting to the speed of the game. Still, he was so bad this year that he has to tumble down the board into this range.

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49. Darius Garland, G | 19 years old | Cleveland Cavaliers

2019-20 stats: 12.3 points, 1.9 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 40.1/35.5/87.3

Preseason: Garland is obviously one of the toughest evaluations in this draft class. On one hand, he plays probably the most important position in the modern NBA as a shot-creating lead guard who has gravity off the bounce out to about 30 feet. If he hits, there is a chance that Garland becomes a legitimate star. On the other hand, there are genuine weaknesses in his game that could tear that down. … Garland is terrific at creating open shots because of his tight handle and ability to get separation. His live dribble game is a monster as Garland excels at changing speeds. He has a terrific hesitation dribble that freezes defenders. His inside-out move is awesome, in large part because it plays off of a crossover that Garland can execute either just in front of his body or between the legs into a step-back. The technical craft within Garland’s game off the bounce really is quite impressive for a teenager — especially one who grew up playing off-ball as a shooting guard. From there, Garland has the ability to get into his jump shot with ease.

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Addendum:Beyond shooting the basketball, Garland didn’t have a particularly strong year. He showcased a lot of the skills shooting off the bounce that we figured he’d have coming into the league and his floater game did translate. But I don’t think he really broke defenders all that well, and his passing game wasn’t really there at all. He drew next to no fouls and didn’t finish well around the rim. Some fans will point to improved assist numbers in the second half of the season, but those largely came because he started playing more minutes once the season was completely lost. And this all happened despite playing in relative freedom. And we probably should not even discuss the defense, which was a total train wreck.

Garland was always a boom-bust pick. Given the shooting upside he showed in his rookie season, I don’t think he’s totally trending toward the bust category at all. It wasn’t all lost. He just wasn’t a part of the solution in Cleveland yet, either. The keys going forward are continue to learn how to read the floor, how to do anything going toward the basket beyond just his floater game, and becoming remotely passable on defense. That’s a long road, but the shooting acumen at least gives a building block that defenders have to account for, which could allow him to accentuate those skills in real game time.

50. Rui Hachimura, F | 22 years old | Washington Wizards

2019-20 stats: 13.4 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 47.8/27.4/82.9

Preseason: I’ve long been intrigued by Hachimura, who the Wizards took at No. 9 in this year’s NBA Draft. His combination of athleticism, fluidity and strength is rare for a player of his size and length. But despite being a productive three-year college player,he’s still pretty raw from starting high-level organized basketball later in life.I had him at No. 17 on my board pre-draft, largely because I worry about what his role-player skills look like in today’s NBA. At the top of this, I called Hachimura something of an “all-or-nothing” player. The reason I say that is because I do think there is a chance that this just all works, and Hachimura becomes a legitimately high-level scorer. His athleticism and length will allow him to create mismatches. If the shot comes along, it’s going to be really hard for defenses to guard him because he’ll really be able to keep them off-balance. But if it doesn’t really work, then things could get tricky.

Full Analysis

Addendum: Honestly, for a rookie, the signs that Hachimura would be able to get something out of his strength/quickness combination were positive. He created enough mismatch situations to where he was a positive on offense out there. Defensively, I still have a ton of questions, as his overall rotational instincts were not great. Washington, in general, was kind of a nightmare on defense. But he didn’t help it at all. Ultimately, how high he can rise on this list will depend on the jump shot. He needs to convert from 3 at a much higher clip than he did this season. Having said that, he got enough out of the tools to where I’m intrigued long-term.

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Just missed the list

• Miami point guard Kendrick Nunncertainly is talented enough to be on this list, and he was the starting point guard for a terrific Heat team this season. Having said that, I’m not going to rank him here for the same reasons I went into when I broke down the Heat’s prospects back in October. Nunnpled guilty to a misdemeanor battery charge following a domestic violence arrest in 2016. As part of the plea agreement, two other counts of domestic battery were dismissed. I’m not opposed to second chances, but the person getting the second chance needs to have shown some sort of real rehabilitation beyond what the court-mandated community tasks were. That person needs to show an understanding of the issue of domestic violence, get why it’s such a critical issue currently in our country, and go out of the way to make an impact on the community. And this is where Nunn failed, at least in the public sector. As I said back in October, I would not reasonably make the case for Nunn to be on my team if I were running an organization. So I’m choosing not to rank him here, too.

• Phoenix wingMikal Bridges is a monster defensive prospect who is really smart as an offensive cutter. But I don’t really feel comfortable enough with him as a consistent shooter or ballhandler to get him on here. He was No. 51.

• Sacramento guard Bogdan Bogdanovic was No. 52, knocked off because he is what he is. He’s a useful 27-year-old sixth-man type guard. I think he has a bit of upside as a playoff player given his stellar past exploits in European playoff competitions. But I couldn’t find a spot for him ahead of some of the younger guys with higher upside and higher variance.

• Memphisguard De’Anthony Meltonis the kind of guy who really affects winning by his sheer presence. He’s so great at pushing tempo and defending multiple positions. He is so helpful out there for the Grizzlies because he can play lead guard or play next to Morant or Tyus Jones. He was No. 53.

• New Orleans centerJaxson Hayes has all sorts of upside athletically, but isn’t quite polished enough for me to push him on here. I’m also a bit skeptical of his role going forward as Williamson figures to see minutes at center in closing situations, and Derrick Favors was an enormous part of the team’s defense this year to the point that I would strongly recommend that they re-sign him.

• Lakers forwardKyle Kuzmahas shown some offensive firepower, but it’s hard for me to get past the defense and inconsistent shooting.

• ClippersguardLandry Shametwas such a ridiculous shooter last year that he probably would have found a spot. However, he took a bit of a step back this season and is still largely deriving all of his value from knocking down shots on the move.

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• Finally, unsurprisingly given the trajectory of his career,Markelle Fultz was one of the toughest decisions near the end of this thing. He really took a step forward this year as a creator, and I loved what he brought to the table defensively. I’m still just extremely skeptical on what level the offensive side can get to if he can’t even be a threat from outside of 15 feet on the jumper.

(Top photo: Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images)