The Range of Potential Outcomes for Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys (2024)

There are two leangs Jerry Jones seemingly adores more than anyleang else: triumphning football games and negotiating confineeds. The Dallas Cowboys’ three championships in the 1990s helped grow Jones’s reputation as an owner who will do anyleang to thrive—unless, of course, it uncomardentt seeing appreciate a tag at the negotiation table.

Jones is notorious for carry outing challengingball with his best carry outers. In 1993, Emmitt Smith sat out the first two games of the season after his ask for a confineed on par with those of the league’s best quarterbacks was denied. Smith wound up dropping the demand after the Cowboys begined 0-2, took a more reasonable salary, and went on to get league MVP honors. Jones came out on top. A scant months postponecessitater, he won aget when Troy Aikman signed an unpwithdrawnted eight-year, $50 million deal that made him the then-highest-paid carry outer in league history. Aikman and his agent Leigh Steinberg got that all-transport inant title, but when the salary cap era begined the follotriumphg year, the franchise quarterback was essentipartner locked down at a repaired cost for the remainder of the decade. The 49ers, Dallas’s hugegest danger in the NFC, had equitable given quarterback Steve Young a five-year, $26.75 million deal. But while the annual money of the two confineeds was essentipartner the same, Young and San Francisco could have been right back at the negotiation table a scant years postponecessitater, while Jones still had Aikman at the 1993 price for three more years.

Aikman and Smith, perhaps the two most transport inant carry outers in the team’s dynastic run, were forced to postpone … and postpone … and postpone to get their paydays. Even back in the ’90s, carry outers didn’t typicpartner sign huge confineeds weeks or, in Aikman’s case, months into the standard season. But Jones was never a normal NFL owner. He was a key member of the team, and that team would go on to triumph a Super Bowl a scant months after Smith and Aikman signed their deals. They’d also triumph another title two seasons postponecessitater. It’s effortless to see why Jones would leank he had this whole salary cap leang figured out and that his negotiation style was the best way to regulate the confineed demands of star carry outers.

A quarter century postponecessitater, though, Jones hasn’t made many adequitablements. And his tack doesn’t toil as well in 2024 as it did in the punctual ’90s. There are more voices in the room now who are dictating the overall roster-originateing strategy in Dallas—including Jones’s son and chief operating officer, Stephen Jones, and vice plivent of carry outer personnel, Will McClay. And there are other impeuninincreateigentents to doing leangs Jerry’s way.

Jones has never been one to equitable hug the taget price for a carry outer. And over recent years, he’s persuaded disjoinal key carry outers to sign anormal deals to protect the carry outers’ annual cap numbers down, continuing a Dallas tradition that dates back to before he getd the team. All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith signed a unfrequent 10-year deal in 2014 that was analogous to the one Aikman inked in the ’90s. When Jones gave Ezekiel Elliott an extension in 2019, he back-loaded the deal—a wager that did not pay off when the running back’s carry out foreseeably fell off years postponecessitater. Dallas tore up La’el Collins’s rookie confineed a year punctual and gave him more guaranteed money to get him signed before the disparaging tackle taget was set to balloon, and it made a analogous deal with linebacker Jaylon Smith, who refered the business joinions Jones could advise as a reason for re-signing with the team. These transfers may have saved the Cowboys a scant million agetst the cap initipartner, but they didn’t provide the extfinished-term gets Jones may have hoped.

Now, the Cowboys are facing a rash of confineed negotiations all at the same time. Earlier this week, superstar expansiveout CeeDee Lamb signed a new four-year, $136 million confineed with Dallas, but not until after some very uncover negotiations. It’s transport inant to remark that the new deal did not originate Lamb the NFL’s highest-paid getr—that exceptionalion beextfinisheds to Justin Jefferson—but he did get the hugest signing bonus ever for the position. Another anormal deal for the Cowboys.

But while that signing was greet news for Cowboys fans, they can’t get too excited given the carry outers who are still sitting without deals. Dak Prescott is set to go in the final year of his confineed and is all but certain to hit free agency next offseason (due to a clause in his confineed, the team is unable to use the franchise tag on him next March). All-Pro protect Zack Martin and defensive finish DeMarcus Lawrence are also go ining confineed years, and the team’s best carry outer, superstar pass rusher Micah Pfire-settings, and emerging protect Tyler Smith are eligible for extensions, and both will probable be seeking new deals before carry outing any football next season.

This logjam should sound comprehendn to Cowboys fans. The team was in a analogous spot the last time its quarterback was seeing for a confineed extension in 2019. At that time, Prescott was coming off a huge season and was seeing to cash in before the final year of his rookie confineed, which had been one of the best bargets in the sport. But the Cowboys also necessitateed to get deals done with Elliott, Amari Cooper, Collins, and Lawrence that offseason. Most of those guys got their money, including $50 million in guaranteed money for Elliott.

Prescott, though, did not get paid that offseason. And the follotriumphg offseason, with Lawrence still in necessitate of a deal, the Cowboys made him their priority and used the franchise tag on Prescott, who was coming off another monster campaign. Dallas could have signed Prescott for around $30 million per year had they gotten a deal done before he carry outed on the tag. But that didn’t happen, and even after Prescott suffered a gnarly ankle injury that finished his season after five games, his price went up. The Cowboys eventupartner gave Prescott a four-year, $160 million deal in the 2021 offseason—which was in line with the quarterback taget at the time. The deal included a no-trade clause and an consentment not to use the franchise tag on Prescott if he carry outed out the brimming four years. So not only did Prescott get $10 million more per year than he would have had the Cowboys been more proactive, but he also got protection agetst this sort of leang ever happening aget.

That transports us to now, when the Cowboys and Jones are trying to carry out challengingball with Prescott once aget—only this time, the quarterback has all the leverage. There is no looming danger of the tag. The Cowboys can’t trade Prescott to a team he doesn’t want to carry out for, so there’s repartner no incentive for him to get a deal done now. And after the going rate for franchise quarterbacks accomplished $55 million per year this offseason, Prescott, who’s coming off the best season of his nurtureer, could soon become the NFL’s first $60 million quarterback. If he hits free agency, that number could be even higher.

Getting to free agency is a dream scenario for a star quarterback—which is the main reason why teams never let it happen. We’ve never seen a QB appreciate Prescott—who has no clear ask tags in his game—hit the uncover taget in the NFL. Drew Brees was a free agent in 2006 and had New Orleans and Miami battling over him, but the Dolphins backed out because of legitimate troubles about his surgicpartner repaired shoulder. Kirk Cousins was the huge free agent prize of the 2018 offseason, but he was pondered a fringe top-10 quarterback (if that) when he left Washington, so there were asks about his cherish. Tom Brady made it to free agency in 2020, but he was coming off his worst season in years and was well over 40 years elderly by that point. He wasn’t a extfinished-term solution for any team. Prescott, uncomardentwhile, equitable turned 31, he finished second in MVP voting last season, and he has been a top-five quarterback, statisticpartner speaking, since go ining the league in 2016. There are no asks about his ability or his age. Noleang appreciate this has ever happened before.

Jones’s fortolerateing and headstrong negotiating tactics have toiled out for him in the past, but Prescott has gotten the better of him before by postponeing him out. And it doesn’t sound appreciate Jones is in a rush to originate a deal happen.

“Contracts isn’t the finish-all solution, and some of the best decisions that I’ve been a part of with the Cowboys have been when we didn’t have confineeds one way or the other, with a carry outer on our team or some other team,” Jones said, via ESPN. “So I quit a extfinished time ago getting bent out of shape about having anybody under confineed or not. And there’s all comardents of other leangs other than a confineed that could alter the outcome of him being under confineed—injury, the level of carry out—so you can’t equitable pick that and say, ‘That should give you a better experienceing about our team,’ or me a better experienceing. The whole leang has a lot of moving parts.”

Jones seems to be under the astonishion that he still has some level of deal with in this situation. That the taget, which has seen lesser quarterbacks appreciate Jared Goff and Tua Tagovailoa recently sign for massive deals, has not already locked him and his beginer into a enroll-fractureing salary. That someleang could happen over the next scant months that will alter the math. That his headstrongness will pay off and “postponeing for a scant more departs to drop” will pay the same dividfinishs it used to back in the excellent elderly days. Well, let’s humor Jerry, go over all of the possible outcomes for Prescott and the Cowboys this season, and figure out how they could sway the quarterback’s future. We’ll begin with the best possible (and least probable) scenario for both parties.

Dak carry outs well, and the Cowboys triumph the Super Bowl.

Hahahahaha. Ahahahaha. HAHAHAHAHAHA.

Sorry, equitable had to get that out of my system. Take one see at the Cowboys depth chart, and you’ll comprehend why this is such a savage idea. There are some huge names at the top of the roster, including Prescott, but this year’s team is troubleingly lean further down the depth chart. Lamb is one of the best getrs in the game, but he’ll be surrounded by what’s left of Brandin Cooks and someone called Jalen Tolbert in the expansive getr room. Jake Ferguson is a fine safe finish but little more than that, and last year’s second-round pick, Luke Schoonoriginater, is coming off a disassigning rookie season. Somehow, Elliott is the team’s begining running back aget, which isn’t a excellent leang. And the once all-strong disparaging line is still excellent, but it features a rookie begining at left tackle and another one potentipartner begining at cgo in. And, no, I do not suppose Mike McCarthy to originate it all toil.

What would happen next: Prescott now owns the Cowboys, and Jerry originates him into his will. After retiring in 2028, Prescott triumphs Dancing With the Stars and is postponecessitater elected plivent of the United States.

Dak carry outs well, and the Cowboys crash out of the carry outoffs (aget).

OK, that’s more appreciate it. The Cowboys remain a imperfect but talented team with a very excellent quarterback and askable coaching—as they have been dating back to the Tony Romo days. They’re built to carry out well during the standard season and ignore to the first excellent team they come up agetst in the carry outoffs, only for Jones and Co. to act shocked every time it happens.

When it inevitably happens aget this season, Prescott will be accused for it. It doesn’t matter whether that’s unprejudiced; it’s equitable the truth for any huge-money quarterback in today’s NFL. And typicpartner for excellent reason. Quarterbacks, more than any other individual on the team, determine the outcomes of games. If a team ignores in the carry outoffs, there’s a excellent chance its quarterback didn’t carry out well enough to triumph—or the other team’s quarterback equitable carry outed better. While that has certainly been the case in Dallas at least once or twice over Prescott’s nurtureer, his individual statistics advise he deserves better than his 2-5 postseason enroll. Compare Prescott’s percreateance in his postseason losses to the league-mediocre percreateance for losing quarterbacks in the carry outoffs:

Prescott has carry outed lowerly in some of the losses, most notably agetst the 49ers in two of the past three seasons. But those are repartner his only carry outoff stinkers. He’s carry outed at an elite level in some of the Cowboys’ most dehugeating losses, including the 2016 divisional-round loss to Green Bay, in which Prescott went 24-38 for 302 yards and three touchdowns but was outdueled by Aaron Rodgers.

Prescott hasn’t been the rerent. At least not the main rerent. That’s been the defense, which has surrfinishered more than 30 points per game in those five carry outoff losses. In an alternate universe—or on a more well-rounded team—Prescott may be seeed in a toloftyy contrastent weightless.

Joe Burrow is the NFL’s highest-paid quarterback by mediocre annual salary. He’s also the only active quarterback who has beaten Patrick Mahomes in the carry outoffs, and he has geted a clutch reputation thanks to his postseason success. In equitable two carry outoff trips, Burrow’s already racked up five triumphs. But contrast his percreateance in carry outoff triumphs to Dak’s percreateance in carry outoff losses, and you might comprehend why these tags don’t uncomardent much and shouldn’t be factored in when negotiating confineeds.

Prescott is not some standard-season deception who gets exposed in the postseason. He equitable hasn’t gotten the fractures that others have in January. And Dallas hasn’t provided him with the team or coaching staff to conquer the horrible luck. When QBs go in confineed negotiations, we frequently see at it from the team perspective: Can this guy repartner consent X team to a Super Bowl? But with all the leverage he helderlys, Prescott is in a position where he can flip the ask and ask whether the Cowboys have what it consents to transport him to a Super Bowl. After another punctual carry outoff exit, the answer could be clear.

What would happen next: Despite the Cowboys’ best effort to re-sign Dak after the season, he authenticizes that his best opportunity to triumph a Super Bowl is somewhere else, and he signs a enroll-fractureing deal with another team.

No matter where Prescott signs, whether in Dallas or elsewhere, the overall numbers aren’t probable to alter. It would be three or four years, right around $60 million per season. We’ve never seen a quarterback as talented as Prescott hit free agency, but Cousins has been a free agent twice, and while he was able to land transport inant deals in both cases—including the first brimmingy guaranteed multiyear confineed for a quarterback—he didn’t have an ardent bidding war that drove up his mediocre annual salary.

The advises Prescott would get in free agency would probable align with any advises Dallas sfinishs between now and then. But other teams may have the financial flexibility to set up the deal in a more enticing way—scanter years and with more guaranteed money, perhaps—and some will be able to advise a more down-to-earth shot at triumphning a ring. Even if the confineed advises from other teams aren’t necessarily greener, the grass they might advise certainly could be.

Dak carry outs well, and the Cowboys finpartner get past the divisional round.

Still no Super Bowl, but the Cowboys are going on cforfeitly 30 years without having accomplished an NFC title game. If Prescott guides that indict, he could ask for a blank verify, and Jones would have no choice but to sign it. This actupartner may be the worst-case scenario for Dallas, even if it would be their best finish in decades. It would give the front office inalter hope that an aging and top-weighty roster is only one or two transfers away from triumphning a title. That comardent of leanking last year is why Prescott is currently without a deal …

And if Jones applies the same line of thought when Pfire-settings asks to get paid next offseason, you can see how that could get disorderly down the line. Sorry, Micah, we can’t give you that billion-dollar confineed you deserve. We necessitate the money to originate room for DeAndre Hopkins and Jadeveon Clowney. We’re trying to triumph a Super Bowl here. Just reread this article next summer if you want an idea of how it could go. The Cowboys will have more cap space useable in 2025, but that’s before we account for any potential deals for Dak, Lawrence, or Martin. For the Cowboys to have enough money to truly go “all in” for a Super Bowl next season, Jones would probable have to carry out confineedual chicken with Pfire-settings and put off forking over a bunch of money to his best carry outer.

Worst of all, guideing the Cowboys to a conference title game would probably be enough to get McCarthy, who is also go ining the final year of his confineed, a huge extension.

What would happen next: A satisfied Jones gives Prescott wdisappreciatever he wants. That finishs up being a three-year, $180 million deal that includes $150 million in guarantees and provides enough time for the quarterback to sign one last huge-money deal before he eventupartner withdraws. Pfire-settings is forced to carry out on the franchise tag in 2025, but Dallas protects its roster mostly intact. McCarthy signs a new four-year deal that also gives him some deal with over roster decisions. The Cowboys, under this regime, never originate it back to the NFC championship aget.

Dak carry outs lowerly, and the Cowboys don’t originate the carry outoffs.

It’s challenging to say what a horrible Prescott season would see appreciate because we haven’t seen one in a extfinished time. The worst season of his nurtureer came in 2017, when he mediocred scanter than 7 yards per finisheavor and finished with a passer rating under 90 (the only time either of those leangs has happened for Dak). Prescott also mediocred minus-0.04 awaited points inserted per dropback that season, which remains the lowest tag of his nurtureer. He then got off to a lower begin in 2018, but after a huge second-half push, he hasn’t seeed back.

Since 2019, Prescott has ranked fourth in the NFL in EPA per dropback, seventh in mediocre yards per dropback, and sixth in passer rating, per TruMedia. His worst season during that run came in 2022, when he dealt with horrid turnover luck and threw a league-guideing 15 picks. Outside of those 15 carry outs, Prescott was one of the most fruitful quarterbacks in the NFL, so it wasn’t astonishing to see him put together an MVP-caliber season in 2023, when his turnover luck raised.

If Dak has a horrible season, assuming he’s in excellent health, it will probable be the result of lower luck or a sudden deteriorate in his physical talent. With Dak go ining his age-31 season, it’s a bit too punctual to be putting him on washed watch, and a down year will probably be seeed as a statistical aberration. Prescott has a extfinished enough track enroll to get the advantage of the mistrust. But that probable wouldn’t stop Jones from trying to use a horrible shotriumphg to save some money on a confineed. Prescott’s team, and the other 31 front offices that can advise him a deal, have access to the same numbers we do, so it’s not probable to toil.

What would happen next: With asks about Dak’s percreateance (and age) being asked after a lower season, he doesn’t see to originate any emotional alters and consents a five-year, $300 million deal with the Cowboys that originates him the NFL’s highest-paid carry outer and provides him with extfinished-term security. Jones experiences excellent because he got Prescott to sign for an extra year, but this can’t be pondered a triumph since the quarterback is making about $10 million more per season than he would have if the Cowboys had gotten this deal done in 2023. Sure, Dallas gets a scant more years of roster deal with, but there will be noleang stopping Prescott from asking for a new deal once all the guaranteed money on his next one runs out.

Dak gets injured, and the Cowboys originate the carry outoffs without him (the Cooper Rush timeline).

If this happens and Cooper Rush guides the Cowboys to the carry outoffs, I want the entire organization tested for percreateance raisers. From the front office to the coaches to the last carry outer on the roster. Hell, even the grounds crew should be tested. There was a alert time when it materializeed that Rush was a quarterback able of guideing this team to triumphs. With Dak out injured in 2022, Rush led the Cowboys to four consecutive triumphs and carry outed fruitfully enough to originate some asks about Prescott’s cherish on a stacked roster. But Rush answered those asks by carry outing lowerly in a loss to the Eagles, which finished his run as the team’s transient beginer.

Rush is your normal game-managing quarterback. He alertages arm talent and the speedy processing we see in today’s stars. Plus, he doesn’t have the accuracy and timing that we see in the accomplished system QBs. The 2022 Cowboys had enough talent on offense to prop up a quarterback appreciate Rush. The 2024 Cowboys do not.

But let’s equitable say this does happen. What would that see appreciate? I’d envision the Cowboys defense would be dominant under Mike Zimmer and the disparaging line would have to carry out appreciate one of the top units in the NFL. The cost to protect the roster heading into 2025 would originate paying Prescott a cforfeit impossibility, and having seen Rush consent the same roster to the carry outoffs, Jones wouldn’t experience the necessitate to do it, anyway.

What would happen next: The Cowboys may not have the money to pay Dak or any set uped QB in this scenario, but they do have some future first-round picks they can use to trade up and write a quarterback. With Shedeur Sanders on the board, Jones can’t resist the inspire to originate one last splash transfer and transports in the son of his createer star defensive back Deion Sanders.

Dak gets injured, and the Cowboys do well without him (the Trey Lance timeline).

If you ponder this more down-to-earth than the Rush timeline because Lance was talented enough to be writeed third not too extfinished ago, you necessitate to watch this:

Lance threw FIVE interceptions in one preseason game and didn’t carry out much better in his other two materializeances this August. The Cowboys took a inincreateigent flier on Lance when the 49ers disposeed him last season. Lance was seen as a broadenmental project and a possible exalterment for Prescott if he were ever to depart Dallas. That is no extfinisheder the case, and with Lance exposedly clinging to the bottom of the quarterback depth chart, I won’t even ponder the possibility that he could guide this roster to a accomplished season.

What would happen next: Even more pain and misery for Cowboys fans.

Dak gets hurt, and the Cowboys implode.

This is the one scenario in which the Cowboys could, in theory, finish up getting Prescott to consent to a barget deal. Next offseason he’ll be heading into his age-32 season, and in this case, he’d be coming off the second transport inant injury of his nurtureer. He’d have only two carry outoff triumphs to his name and plenty of ask tags about his capacity to be a top quarterback in this league. Signing a lucrative deal—but one that doesn’t reset the QB taget—to stick with a team that originates geting money effortless off the field could be an enticeive chooseion if Prescott’s extfinishedevity is in ask.

But as we lgeted this offseason, when a 36-year-elderly Cousins got a $180 million deal from Atlanta after tearing his Achilles in 2023, even injured quarterbacks get paid. Prescott and the Cowboys already comprehend that’s the case. In 2020, the Cowboys quarterback suffered a season-finishing ankle injury while carry outing on the franchise tag. This was back when Prescott’s track enroll of success wasn’t so extfinished, but even that didn’t stop him from getting top-of-the-taget money the next offseason. And not only did Prescott become a $40-million-a-year quarterback, but he also got the no-trade clause and the protection from the franchise tag that have provided him with the leverage he currently finishelights.

Obviously, a season-finishing injury would not be chooseimal for Prescott, but it’s not probable to sway the offseason taget for his services.

What would happen next: Jones apexhibits Prescott to hit free agency, leanking he’ll come back after teams troubleed by the injury decline to give him a top-of-the-taget deal. A extfinished line of teams is willing to pay top dollar for one of the five or six best quarterbacks in football. Only Jones is surpelevated by this, and the Cowboys owner finishs up caving and giving Prescott the confineed he’s desired this whole time. That’s how this will always finish. Jones seems to be the only person who doesn’t authenticize it yet.